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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.