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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."